You know, I kinda thought that the election might be announced today. On the way home from town on Saturday, I spotted this bloke sitting beside the road under an umbrella. It was the LNP candidate for my electorate. The table in front of him supported a big "Vote-for...." sign. How prescient of him!
wv: allishi_ Add the final letter to get Qld's credit rating.
I noticed a car with LNP stickers on it outside my building on campus on Friday afternoon as I left and near the ferry pontoon there were two or three LNP reps in t-shirts and caps... A portent, along with all the leaping ALP members...
Will anybody believe Bligh's excuse for an early election? She's claiming she needs a mandate to get her through the financial crisis. I wonder what they know that we don't know. It has to be really, really bad.
Yeah, she really needs a mandate. For christ sake she has 58 seats in an 89 seat parliament without an upper house. She can get any legislation through she wants without problem. What the hell is she talking about.
You're on track Skeeter. Pickles raised some points over at Boltas re Nuttall, and there's Patel and who knows what else. My biggest fear is that the ALP will be re-elected and within 18 months we'll be a bigger basket case than NSW with no hope of replacing them for years. I hope Brisbane metropolitan voters consider this. Mehaul.
Skeeter, the world economy has tanked and as far as I can see the mining boom has gone south too and with it the Royalties that the Queensland government would otherwise receive.
For example the coal queue at Dalrymple Bay has fallen from 70 down to 10 ships. Demand for all commodities has fallen hugely and my guess is that the effects are about to work through the Queensland mining industry as well as the rest of Australia.
A useful indicator that I have been following for several months now is the Baltic Dry Index which also has tanked last year from a high of more than 11,500 to a low of about 900 in January this year. That’s a decline of more than 90%. However I see that since then the index has increased a little since then, but not much.
There is an explanation of how economists interpret the BDI here... “Most directly, the index measures the demand for shipping capacity versus the supply of dry bulk carriers. The supply of cargo ships is generally both tight and inelastic .. so marginal increases in demand can push the index higher quickly, and marginal demand decreases can cause the index to fall rapidly... and the BDI is termed a leading economic indicator because it predicts future economic activity.”
“Because it provides "an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea," according to The Baltic, "... it provides both a rare window into the highly opaque and diffuse shipping market and an accurate barometer of the volume of global trade -- devoid of political and other agenda concerns."
So in a nutshell world trade has tanked and the BDI is an indication of this. And of course we know that this has been a direct flow on from the US Sub Prime debacle. The problem now simply that it is difficult to borrow for any purpose as the banks have stopped lending to each other. An article some months ago about the BDI explained that most international trade is financed with the intermediaries borrowing to fund all aspects of the trade - shipping agent, ship contract hire, deliveries to/from ports, etc and that after the goods have been delivered the contracts (and loans) are settled with the final surplus representing the profit on the trade by the shipping agent. But now, funds are not available from banks for this purpose.
Some months ago I asked a contact in the coal industry here if they were still producing and shipping coal at the same rate as previously and at that stage the answer was yes. However there had just been one trade that did not proceed because although the buyer was willing, he was unable to arrange shipping because he could not get a ship! My guess is that this was because the money supply for world trade has dried up.
So overall the position is likely far worse than our politicians are admitting not that I think many of them would fully appreciate what is happening. In these circumstances, Bligh would naturally be thinking of her own political survival only to try and stave off being routed by an angry electorate when they feel the full effects of the fall in world trade.
And these ALP clowns want an emissions trading scheme!
"Kaboom: what the hell is her rationale for that?!?
Well, it's like this, ntk:
(1) Being female, she is not obliged to provide a rationale;
(2) When pressed, the rationale is that women have been repressed for so long, you know, that they deserve every chance to succeed in their chosen field, be it politics, the judiciary or religion;
(3) A woman deserves support if she gets out of her comfort zone, and seeks political office; and
(4) Men cause wars, women are nurturing creatures who look after Men, Women, Children, and The Environment.
13 comments:
You know, I kinda thought that the election might be announced today.
On the way home from town on Saturday, I spotted this bloke sitting beside the road under an umbrella. It was the LNP candidate for my electorate. The table in front of him supported a big "Vote-for...." sign. How prescient of him!
wv: allishi_ Add the final letter to get Qld's credit rating.
I noticed a car with LNP stickers on it outside my building on campus on Friday afternoon as I left and near the ferry pontoon there were two or three LNP reps in t-shirts and caps...
A portent, along with all the leaping ALP members...
So, will you vote by raising right hands or left?
Cheers
Oh, both, of course.
Oh Christ! I hate elections. My wife votes for (1) the female candidate, and if there are more than one, the best dressed.
Occasionally she has negatived my vote by polling for a Green candidate (being the only woman, but albeit badly attired).
Normally, she negatives my vote by voting for whatever well-dressed dypsy fronts for the ALP.
Either way, until we get a well-dressed female fronting for the LNP in our electorate, I'm so totally screwed.......
Will anybody believe Bligh's excuse for an early election? She's claiming she needs a mandate to get her through the financial crisis.
I wonder what they know that we don't know. It has to be really, really bad.
Yeah, she really needs a mandate. For christ sake she has 58 seats in an 89 seat parliament without an upper house. She can get any legislation through she wants without problem. What the hell is she talking about.
You're on track Skeeter. Pickles raised some points over at Boltas re Nuttall, and there's Patel and who knows what else. My biggest fear is that the ALP will be re-elected and within 18 months we'll be a bigger basket case than NSW with no hope of replacing them for years. I hope Brisbane metropolitan voters consider this. Mehaul.
Kaboom: what the hell is her rationale for that?!?
Skeeter, the world economy has tanked and as far as I can see the mining boom has gone south too and with it the Royalties that the Queensland government would otherwise receive.
For example the coal queue at Dalrymple Bay has fallen from 70 down to 10 ships. Demand for all commodities has fallen hugely and my guess is that the effects are about to work through the Queensland mining industry as well as the rest of Australia.
A useful indicator that I have been following for several months now is the Baltic Dry Index which also has tanked last year from a high of more than 11,500 to a low of about 900 in January this year. That’s a decline of more than 90%. However I see that since then the index has increased a little since then, but not much.
There is an explanation of how economists interpret the BDI here... “Most directly, the index measures the demand for shipping capacity versus the supply of dry bulk carriers. The supply of cargo ships is generally both tight and inelastic .. so marginal increases in demand can push the index higher quickly, and marginal demand decreases can cause the index to fall rapidly... and the BDI is termed a leading economic indicator because it predicts future economic activity.”
“Because it provides "an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea," according to The Baltic, "... it provides both a rare window into the highly opaque and diffuse shipping market and an accurate barometer of the volume of global trade -- devoid of political and other agenda concerns."
So in a nutshell world trade has tanked and the BDI is an indication of this. And of course we know that this has been a direct flow on from the US Sub Prime debacle. The problem now simply that it is difficult to borrow for any purpose as the banks have stopped lending to each other. An article some months ago about the BDI explained that most international trade is financed with the intermediaries borrowing to fund all aspects of the trade - shipping agent, ship contract hire, deliveries to/from ports, etc and that after the goods have been delivered the contracts (and loans) are settled with the final surplus representing the profit on the trade by the shipping agent. But now, funds are not available from banks for this purpose.
Some months ago I asked a contact in the coal industry here if they were still producing and shipping coal at the same rate as previously and at that stage the answer was yes. However there had just been one trade that did not proceed because although the buyer was willing, he was unable to arrange shipping because he could not get a ship! My guess is that this was because the money supply for world trade has dried up.
So overall the position is likely far worse than our politicians are admitting not that I think many of them would fully appreciate what is happening. In these circumstances, Bligh would naturally be thinking of her own political survival only to try and stave off being routed by an angry electorate when they feel the full effects of the fall in world trade.
And these ALP clowns want an emissions trading scheme!
ntk:
"Kaboom: what the hell is her rationale for that?!?
Well, it's like this, ntk:
(1) Being female, she is not obliged to provide a rationale;
(2) When pressed, the rationale is that women have been repressed for so long, you know, that they deserve every chance to succeed in their chosen field, be it politics, the judiciary or religion;
(3) A woman deserves support if she gets out of her comfort zone, and seeks political office; and
(4) Men cause wars, women are nurturing creatures who look after Men, Women, Children, and The Environment.
Do you have a problem with this?
Thanks, Wand. That all makes sense.
Sadly, not all the clowns are in the ALP.
Good grief Kaboom. Did your wife mature past the age of fifteen?
Alternatively you could try telling the guys at Mancoat. They'd love it.
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