From the article:
The scale of the cuts mooted by Professor Garnaut in an interim report in February overwhelmed the models and work has been delayed until August, barely a month before Professor Garnaut's final report is due.
The lack of definitive modelling results means Kevin Rudd may be forced to compromise his hardline election commitments on emission trading to create a scheme with enough flexibility to cope with unexpected problems that emerge after the proposed start date in 2010.
Draft modelling estimates that a $45-a-tonne price on carbon would be needed to deliver a 10per cent cut in emissions by 2020, which would shut down almost all remaining brown coal plants in Australia. This would require the construction of cleaner power stations capable of producing 14,000 megawatts within a decade, which could cost up to $50 billion.
Brilliant! - the models cannot cope with the cost imposts and I’m not surprised because the true costs (industry throttling and job losses etc) will be huge. However, the last paragraph that I quoted above is interesting too. Physically to construct 14,000 MW or power generation within a decade would be impossible. There would be some ’trifling’ details such as the sites to locate the power stations, the transmission infrastructure to connect them to the grid and oh yes the fuel - which would have to be gas. The price quoted translates to more than $3,500 per kW which is twice the cost of a new coal fired power station and gas costs about three times that of coal. Brilliant indeed. It doesn’t take an economic genius to work out what this would do... but there’s more (if the cap and trade scheme gets off the ground). And that is that as the years tick by, there will be less energy available for distribution because the scheme’s rationing process will kick in.
Brilliant idiots indeed! It will be interesting to watch Kevni’s spinning wheels in motion in the months ahead!
Thanks Wand! I saw the headline on my way to work and wondered....
Update from Wand: More at Bolta's. Rudd spin makes Ferguson ill... Canadians Gas On and Rudd Will...
Update II: How is raising the price going to decrease consumption? Most people I know do everything to limit their electricity bill because they have to budget for it; anyone else won't give a rats. When the scam is revealed as a scam, er, mistake, do you think that any taxes/levys for carbon output will be taken off?