Monday, June 2, 2008

Wand comments: Watch Kevni’s spinning wheels in motion in the months ahead

Hmm, well coming soon will be another Kevin Shuffle .... perhaps, then perhaps not. A green paper (how apt!) about the much vaunted Emissions Trading Scheme is due to be released in July but this gem from the Australian this morning says it all: “Garnaut target thwarts experts.”

From the article:

The scale of the cuts mooted by Professor Garnaut in an interim report in February overwhelmed the models and work has been delayed until August, barely a month before Professor Garnaut's final report is due.

The lack of definitive modelling results means Kevin Rudd may be forced to compromise his hardline election commitments on emission trading to create a scheme with enough flexibility to cope with unexpected problems that emerge after the proposed start date in 2010.


Draft modelling estimates that a $45-a-tonne price on carbon would be needed to deliver a 10per cent cut in emissions by 2020, which would shut down almost all remaining brown coal plants in Australia. This would require the construction of cleaner power stations capable of producing 14,000 megawatts within a decade, which could cost up to $50 billion.

Brilliant! - the models cannot cope with the cost imposts and I’m not surprised because the true costs (industry throttling and job losses etc) will be huge. However, the last paragraph that I quoted above is interesting too. Physically to construct 14,000 MW or power generation within a decade would be impossible. There would be some ’trifling’ details such as the sites to locate the power stations, the transmission infrastructure to connect them to the grid and oh yes the fuel - which would have to be gas. The price quoted translates to more than $3,500 per kW which is twice the cost of a new coal fired power station and gas costs about three times that of coal. Brilliant indeed. It doesn’t take an economic genius to work out what this would do... but there’s more (if the cap and trade scheme gets off the ground). And that is that as the years tick by, there will be less energy available for distribution because the scheme’s rationing process will kick in.

Brilliant idiots indeed! It will be interesting to watch Kevni’s spinning wheels in motion in the months ahead!

Thanks Wand! I saw the headline on my way to work and wondered....

Update from Wand: More at Bolta's. Rudd spin makes Ferguson ill... Canadians Gas On and Rudd Will...
Update II: How is raising the price going to decrease consumption? Most people I know do everything to limit their electricity bill because they have to budget for it; anyone else won't give a rats. When the scam is revealed as a scam, er, mistake, do you think that any taxes/levys for carbon output will be taken off?


stackja1945 said...

Blood, Sweat & Tears - Spinning Wheel

"What goes up must come down
spinning wheel got to go round
Talking about your troubles it's a crying sin
Ride a painted pony
Let the spinning wheel spin"

Wand said...

There’s more over at Bolta’s blog.

Skeeter said...

In Question Time this arvo, Mr Rudd's wheel-spinning became quite strident while he read a slogan-infested, prepared response to a Dorothy Dixer. The gales of laughter this produced obviously got him rattled and panic was becoming evident in his voice. In contrast, Brendon Nelson had just given a brilliant recap of the world situation since 2001, Howard government's support of Allies since then in Iraq, and details of the much improved life for Iraqis. All thanks to Aussie and Allied service folk.
While I watched, Brendon delivered the whole thing from memory. The only time he looked down to consult notes was when he quoted a couple of statements made by Mr Rudd in 2003, ie, Mr Rudd clearly stated that he was then certain that Saddam had lots of WsMD and was a threat to the world.
Mr Rudd never looked towards the opposition but spent the whole time eyes down sorting his piles and writing amendments.
The Government speakers were reading from prepared responses and one guy was stumbling all over the place while he was reading his own answer. More gales of laughter from the Opposition benches.
I enjoy watching the disarray of senior government ministers trying to pretend that they know what they are talking about. Question Time is without doubt the most entertaining program available on our ABC at the moment. It's a pity so few people are able to watch it.

surfmaster said...

There will be some cuts under kevnis emissions trading scheme. Throats people, your throats.

stackja1945 said...

skeeter, they are reading the Secord/Epstein scripts. Must not deviate from these. The piles that Krudd has, probably hold many such scripts. A real pain in the ass.