Monday, October 20, 2008

BEDI indicates world dry bulk shipping collapse

The Baltic Exchange Dry Index is a measure of world shipping and it currently suggests that world shipping has collapsed. (according to this blogger)

Guess why*?

Read on. (I suspect the curve is an inverted hockey stick.)

Now, Wand has suggested that we get our spies living at the bulk port cities of Australia, and anyone involved in the industry, to keep an eye out for any carrier ships. Seeing as they've just about stopped we should notice it, right?

*It's OK. The blogger doesn't know either, and one of his commenters has questioned his interpretation of the BEDI information. It's interesting, but does anyone really know what/how the BEDI works? Simplify!

(Thanks Wand.)

Though a little bird told me about 12 months or so ago that the Chinese economy was going to crash big-time and our resources boom would end.


bruce said...

IMHO, Europe is heading for the rocks, including Britain, especially Britain. Reason? Running on hot air and promises. No substance. No foundation.

Start with the extreme example: I've watched rikshaw pullers in India move economically upwards over time, from sleeping under their rikshaw (bought with a local loan) to buying a video machine, selling tickets to watch videos, building a small cinema, becoming middle class entrepreneurs starting with nothing. But at worst they can always go back to pulling rikshaw. I know Chinese are the same. And Americans in 'flyover country'. Brits used to be entrepreneurs like my rikshaw-wallah. Increasingly after WWII though they are bound in bureaucracy, hot air and promises. Dig deeper and there's nothing there - the spivs have taken over.

bruce said...

I believe that a sound economy is made up of sound (flexible and self-sufficient) economic individuals and families. In that sense China, India and the US are basically sound, while I have deep concerns about Europe.

Predictions about China are based on the assumption that human nature is globally uniform. But that's obviously wrong. The cultural gap between India and China for one, is greater than that between any other couple of peoples, as different as night and day.

Still most Asian families are in for the long haul, while Brit expats fly in, make a killing, and are off to Majorca. Who would you bank your money with? They say 'govt forced Asian savings' are behind the crisis. Would they prefer Asians were forced to gamble their savings with the Spivs? It may be a crude caricature, but I don't think it's inaccurate overall. (Asians are Spivs too, but at least we and they have common interests in preserving the region).

Nick Leeson. (!!)

"London: Financial capital of the universe?" 2006

They talk about a trillion dollars run out of NY in offshore tax havens like the Bahamas. How many of those offshore 'banks' are run by Brit expats?

Too clever by 'arf, I say.

kc said...

Another question to increase my understanding, please...what's a spiv?

I know, I could go back & read & find other references to figure it out, but I'm tired & feeling lazy. Thank you!

kae said...

Hi kc
Bruce has linked to the Wiki definition for "spiv". I thought it was just a flashily dressed con-man or crook, but here's the first paragraph:

Spiv is a British word for a particular kind of petty criminal, who deals in stolen goods or fraudulent sales, especially a well-dressed man offering goods at bargain prices. The goods are generally not what they seem or have been obtained illegally. It was particularly used during the Second World War and in the Post-War rationing period for black-market dealers.