Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Bu**er me silly, contrails cause global warming - there's a model to prove it!

Check it out at AM.

A Climate Change scientist in Germany thought that contrails made clouds and so could effect climate change... so she made a model to prove it!


Skeeter said...

When I first studied aviation meteorology in 1954, accepted atmospheric theory was based on cloud-cover being the major greenhouse determinant.
Cloudy nights resulted in warmer morning temperatures; clear skies at night resulted in colder air temperatures at dawn.
(In temperate latitudes, morning frosts are almost always preceded by gin-clear air during the night.)

During the last 57 years, I have seen nothing that convincingly disproves those earlier observations or theories.

kae said...

Yes, but Skeeter this climate scientist is saying that contrails are a major contributor to global warming, therefore we need to stop flying so high or in such dry air.

This is just getting sillier and sillier, and still they believe!

prairiecat55kc said...

I didn't start my learnin' as far back as Skeeter, but my dad and uncles were private pilots, with much knowledge of meteorology that gets talked about and sometimes sinks into the young skulls full of mush.

Happy to hear you say this, Skeeter, so I know I've not just made it all up. Dad and the uncles are gone, and I don't live in a rural area where pilots are so common anymore.

prairiecat55kc said...

Btw, had my first plane ride in about 1964, I think. Favorite airplane Dad had was an Ercoupe. Sure miss flying.

Minicapt said...

"Butter me silly" .... what's the matter with salad oil?


Skeeter said...

Kae, in your linked AM story, there was also debate about whether the high-flying aircraft caused warming by making clouds or by adding CO2.
In my comment, I was just coming down on the side of the increased clouds being the less implausible cause of warming — slightly more plausible, that is, than the increased CO2.

However, I remain convinced that no man-made additions to the atmosphere have been significant enough to cause the catastrophic global warming being predicted by the AGW doomsayers.

In any case, contrails are not as prevalent nowadays as they were in the the mid-20th Century.

I spent 33 years flying jet aircraft in the stratosphere, and it was more the exception than the rule to see jet aircraft pulling contrails.
In contrast, during WWII, propeller aircraft, at lower altitudes over Europe, often blocked out the whole sky with man-made cloud.

As to whether we can save the planet by stopping jet travel, my answer would be an unequivocal NO.

Skeeter said...

prairiecat55kc, my first flight was in the late 1930s, when I was about 4 or 5 years old. I can't remember what the aircraft type was but pretty sure it was a single-engined cabin biplane — probably a DH Hornet Moth, or something similar.
My strongest memory of the take-off was disappointment. I was expecting it to be all soft and floaty when we left the ground, but if felt just like riding in a car up a gentle slope on a smooth road.
In 1956, by which time I was flying supersonic jet fighters and experiencing the true joys of flight, a squadron friend and I hired a Hornet Moth and we flew it around rural areas for about a week. Very enjoyable, but we decided we preferred our day job flying Sabres.

Skeeter said...

...And, prairiecat, this, my first supersonic flight, might explain why I preferred it.
Can you imagine how much fun a 21-year-old bloke can have in one of these?

prairiecat55kc said...

Skeeter, I married a man who also loves to fly, including flying a skydiver plane just before he went to Navy boot camp. Couldn't be pilot, so he went for air crew on P-3 Orions & did that most of his 22yr career. Shortly before his retirement, the skipper of Test Pilot School took him up in the Hornet, and he vibrates to this day when he thinks of it. Evidently 'afterburner' is a memorable experience when you have the stick!

So yes, I CAN imagine...